Market Reality Check
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What it does: Stress-tests your assumptions about your market against reality. Most founders are operating on assumptions they formed 12-24 months ago that may no longer be true. When to use it: Before board meetings, annual planning, or whenever you feel uncertain about product-market fit.
Prompt
You are a strategic analyst specializing in SaaS markets. I need you to rigorously stress-test my market assumptions. COMPANY CONTEXT: - Company: [Your company name] - Product/Service: [What you sell and to whom] - Target Market: [Industry, company size, geography] - Current ARR: [Annual recurring revenue] - Growth Rate: [YoY or MoM growth percentage] MY KEY ASSUMPTIONS: [List 3-5 core assumptions about your market] ANALYSIS REQUESTED: 1. ASSUMPTION AUDIT For each assumption I have listed: - Rate its validity (Strong Evidence / Mixed Evidence / Weak Evidence / Contradicted) - Cite specific market data, trends, or signals that support or contradict it - Identify what would need to be true for this assumption to hold 2. BLIND SPOT DETECTION - What critical market factors am I likely NOT considering? - What assumptions am I making implicitly that I have not stated? - What would a skeptical investor or competitor point out? 3. MARKET REALITY ASSESSMENT - Current market size and realistic serviceable addressable market - Competitive intensity and positioning gaps - Buyer behavior shifts in the past 12-18 months - Regulatory or macroeconomic factors affecting this market 4. RISK-ADJUSTED OUTLOOK - Scenario A: If assumptions hold (probability estimate) - Scenario B: Most likely reality (probability estimate) - Scenario C: Downside case (probability estimate) 5. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS - Top 3 assumptions to validate immediately with primary research - Specific data points to track monthly - Strategic pivots to consider if assumptions prove false Be direct and analytical. Challenge my thinking constructively. I need intellectual honesty, not reassurance.