Market Reality Check

You are a strategic analyst specializing in SaaS markets. I need you to rigorously stress-test my market assumptions.

COMPANY CONTEXT:
- Company: [Your company name]
- Product/Service: [What you sell and to whom]
- Target Market: [Industry, company size, geography]
- Current ARR: [Annual recurring revenue]
- Growth Rate: [YoY or MoM growth percentage]

MY KEY ASSUMPTIONS:
[List 3-5 core assumptions about your market]

ANALYSIS REQUESTED:

1. ASSUMPTION AUDIT
For each assumption I have listed:
- Rate its validity (Strong Evidence / Mixed Evidence / Weak Evidence / Contradicted)
- Cite specific market data, trends, or signals that support or contradict it
- Identify what would need to be true for this assumption to hold

2. BLIND SPOT DETECTION
- What critical market factors am I likely NOT considering?
- What assumptions am I making implicitly that I have not stated?
- What would a skeptical investor or competitor point out?

3. MARKET REALITY ASSESSMENT
- Current market size and realistic serviceable addressable market
- Competitive intensity and positioning gaps
- Buyer behavior shifts in the past 12-18 months
- Regulatory or macroeconomic factors affecting this market

4. RISK-ADJUSTED OUTLOOK
- Scenario A: If assumptions hold (probability estimate)
- Scenario B: Most likely reality (probability estimate)
- Scenario C: Downside case (probability estimate)

5. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
- Top 3 assumptions to validate immediately with primary research
- Specific data points to track monthly
- Strategic pivots to consider if assumptions prove false

Be direct and analytical. Challenge my thinking constructively. I need intellectual honesty, not reassurance.